International Monetary and Financial Committee Twenty First Meeting April 24, 2010.

Statement by Honorable Olusegun O. Aganga Minister of Finance of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. On behalf of Angola, Botswana, Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Kenya,Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe

A. The global economic and financial markets

Global economic developments

• We are encouraged by the global economic recovery, which seems to be better than was earlier envisaged and is being well supported by accommodative macroeconomic policies. However, the pick-up in activity has been uneven across countries and regions. Recovery in the major advanced economies is sluggish compared with that in the emerging and developing economies. While a variety of risks have receded, the growth outlook remains uncertain and there continue to be some near-term risks. Public debt in advanced economies cannot rise much farther and already limits the scope for policy maneuver. Further, heightened concerns about sovereign risks, though not so widespread in major advanced economies, are dampening investor confidence and threatening the resurgence of financial stability. Although a stimulus-led recovery is under way in the United Sates, private demand remains subdued. In the euro area, recovery is lagging. A number of countries in Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are also lagging. Among emerging and developing economies, Asia is leading the recovery and is, as a result, attracting large capital inflows. Sovereign risks notwithstanding, we consider that accommodative policies in the advanced countries should be continued until recovery is clearly taking hold.

• Strong fundamentals and policies had enabled sub-Saharan Africa to weather the crisis well, and recovery from the 2009 slowdown is expected to be faster than from past global downturns. Although some middle-income and oil-exporting countries were hit hard by the collapse in export and commodity markets, the region managed to avoid contraction. Shocks that hit the region mainly emanated from the trade channel because the region is now more open to trade. The outlook, however, is not clear due to uneven global recovery and resurgence of high energy prices. While higher than expected energy prices would benefit oil exporters, it would trigger another round of dampened growth and higher inflation in the region’s oil importers. In addition, though bilateral aid held up well during the global downturn, the outlook for official aid as a whole is mixed because of the large output declines, possibly protracted recoveries, and heightened fiscal pressures in major donor countries. Thus, though recovery in the region seems to be relatively robust, we consider that African countries should maintain supportive macroeconomic policies in the near term to weather the tail risks of sluggish global recovery and the resurgence in energy prices

Financial market developments

• While the risks have eased as the recovery gained traction, the global economy has not yet stabilized. Vulnerabilities in the financial sector now emanate from concerns about the sustainability of sovereign balance sheets. It is feared that in many advanced economies longer-run solvency concerns could translate into short-term strains in funding markets and intensify the funding challenges facing banks. Slow progress in repair of bank balance sheets and an increase in public borrowing needs may further constrain credit supply and prolong the recovery. Pressing ahead with financial sector reforms to make the global financial system more resilient is essential. Further, it will be important to strike the right balance between protecting the stability of the financial system and ensuring that it is innovative and efficient. Regardless of how regulation is structured, regulators’ toolkits will likely need to be augmented to mitigate systemic risks.

B. Challenges for low-income-countries (LICs)

• We reaffirm that the Fund should remain a quota-based institution, and finance the bulk of its lending from its quota resources. Members’ quotas are relevant for access to Fund resources, including general SDR allocations, and for dividend distributions. The reform of quota shares is therefore of critical importance to the LICs since the IMF reformed its financing instruments in 2009. A core objective of the LICs is also to have more voice and representation at all levels of the Fund.

Access to Fund financing

• We appreciate the relentless efforts of the Fund’s management, staff and the Executive Board to activate the new lending architecture for the LICs under the Poverty Reduction Growth Trust created in July 2009. We especially thank the lenders to the trust for their consent to the new framework, which made it possible for the three financing instruments—the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), the Stand-by Credit Facility (SCF), and the Rapid Credit Facility ( RCF)—to become operational this year. These instruments— together with the enhanced access levels—will go a long way in meeting the financing needs of the LICs. We urge the Fund and its lenders to further enhance the concessional lending facilities based on the core principles of the Fund.

Crisis prevention facility

• We acknowledge that our first line of defense is to increase our resilience through improved policies, institutions and, above all, fundamentals. We have done most of these and are committed to persevere with additional measures going forward.

• That record notwithstanding, we are aware of the efforts in response to the lessons of the crisis to develop crisis-prevention financing instruments for a cross-section of Fund members. While we fully support these efforts, with a caveat for streamlining the number of instruments, we strongly urge that similar crisis-prevention instruments be tailored to the LICs and lower- middle-income countries. A Flexible Credit Line (FCL)-like financing instrument would be appropriate for such countries that have strong fundamentals and policies. We thus support the proposal for broadening qualification for the FCL to meet this objective, while keeping commitment fees and charges at a reduced level.

C. Quotas, size, and the Fund financing role

• We wish to recall that, on quotas, the 2008 reform package resulted in significant losses for the LICs as a group and for a very large number of individual countries. Once this package has been fully ratified, the level of LIC access to Fund resources will significantly diminish. Therefore, the IMFC’s guide for protecting the quota shares of the LICs from further declines should remain a target outcome of the current quota reform.

Quota reform and size of the Fund

• We reaffirm our welcome to the commitment of the G20 leaders and the IMFC to a fasttrack new round of quota and voice reform. It offers IMF members the opportunity to make prompt progress on this critical governance issue and to quickly address legitimacy and governance deficits. We realize fully that achieving these objectives is a daunting task, given the intensity of engagement required and the need for a spirit of compromise from all parties. Nonetheless, the lessons learned from the current crisis and the measures taken to enhance the effectiveness and legitimacy of the Fund in responding to member financing needs, give us a sound basis to use the 14th review of quotas to make a major step forward.

• Mindful of our efforts to make the IMFC a platform for effective Ministerial engagement, we urge the members of the IMFC to rise to the challenge and guide the process further in three key areas: size of quota increase; size of shift in the quota realignment and the beneficiaries of this shift; and the level of quota protection for the LICs. We believe there is political will to achieve an ambitious outcome: the G20 leaders’ commitments and the IMFC communiqué attest to this. To that end, and to achieve the twin objectives of keeping the Fund a quota-based institution while effectively meeting members financing needs in the post-crisis economy, we are of the view that the 14th review should entail a substantial quota increase.

• Should the time factor prevent fully addressing the deficiencies in the quota formula, we would support the proposal advanced by some members that an aggregate shift in quota shares on the order of 5–7 percentage points is necessary both to enable the Fund to enhance its effectiveness as a quota-based institution and to meaningfully rebalance the distribution of quota shares. Quota reform should therefore target at least a 5 percent shift to emerging markets and developing countries (EMDCs) and protection of the quota shares of the LICs members of the IMF at the levels of the 2008 package. Eventual realignment of the largest quotas would also be in concert with the objectives of the quota reform.

• We see merit in the case for a quota increase between 130 to 200 percent to meet these objectives and also to restore quotas relative to averages across traditional global indicators, such as trade and capital inflows to EMDCs. We would support an increase in the upper range and invite the IMFC members to support this level of quota increase. Such a quota increase together with the recently approved expanded new arrangement to borrow (NAB) would give the Fund a commitment capacity of about US$1 trillion. We share the view that this level of commitment would enable the Fund to support members and cope with the additional resource implications of an eventual enlarged Fund mandate.

Future financing role

• The crisis has offered valuable lessons that can be used to strengthen the global financial safety net. There is certainly merit in countries’ desire to increase their resilience to shocks as the first line of defense. We are committed to pursue this objective, and thank the Fund and our development partners for their understanding and support.

• As part of the second line of defense, we are aware that proposals on the future financing role of the Fund include the present crisis-prevention instruments, especially the modernized FCL, and new instruments, such as the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL), the Multi-country Swap Line (MSL), and the co-financing of the Reserve Pooling Arrangements (RPAs). As we have indicated, there is clearly need for crisis-prevention financing instruments and enhancement of concessional instruments for LICs. 15. While the Fund’s proposals for crisis-prevention financing instruments are in the right direction, we urge that more effort be given to modernizing existing instruments, and restrict the new instruments to those that are less stigma-intensive. We fully endorse the caution advanced by other members that all financing instruments, old and new, should be streamlined in line with earlier institutional decisions. This also underlines the need to rationalize the financing instruments. Further, we emphasize the need for greater international cooperation.

D. Governance framework

• We are encouraged by the progress made thus far on governance reform, and would urge the IMFC and Executive Board to address the remaining issues expeditiously, preferably before the next Annual Meetings. We reiterate that governance reform should proceed in parallel with the reform on quotas to enhance legitimacy of the entire process.

• IMFC reform process: We fully support the proposals for strengthening the IMFC as a vehicle for enhancing Ministerial involvement. To that end, we urge that the IMFC meetings and deliberations be adjusted to meet this objective. Strengthening the role of the IMFC as a decision-making body would demand clear delineation of the separate responsibilities of the IMFC, the Executive Board, and management.

• Selection of Fund management: We strongly support the proposals for a transparent, non-region-specific process for selecting the Fund’s management. However, we share the doubts about the efficacy of these proposals unless there is a commitment to quota realignment and clear understandings by all without any “unwritten” rules.

• Functioning of the Executive Board: We support the objective of making the Executive Board stronger while maintaining its current size. We look forward to a decision that will enable the sub-Saharan Africa region to have parity in the representation at the BWIs following the decision of the World Bank to establish a third chair for this region.

E. Strengthening Fund surveillance and mandate

• Surveillance needs to evolve with the global economy. Given the changes in the global economic landscape over the past few years, modernizing surveillance and making financial sector issues core to it have become necessary and inevitable. The importance of evenhandedness in the conduct of Fund surveillance, especially for advanced economies, cannot be overemphasized. Because it is an institution seeking to promote global stability, it is in the best interests of the Fund to strive to overcome the fundamental problem that it seems to have least value and traction with those members that are systemically significant for global stability. The financial sector was at the epicenter of the recent global economic and financial crises. It is therefore of utmost importance to bring financial sector issues and policies to the core of the Fund’s surveillance framework.

• Improving multilateral surveillance and outward spillovers would promote global stability and improve the traction of Fund surveillance. We also believe it would be effective to use outward spillovers as a bridge between multilateral and bilateral surveillance. However, even with greater attention on multilateral surveillance and outward spillovers, bilateral surveillance should continue to remain a pillar of the Fund’s activities. Also, we urge that the ambition to widen the scope of surveillance should be matched by expansion of the Fund’s resources to deliver on its core mandate.

F. Early warning exercise (EWE)

• A key lesson the world has learned from the current crisis is the need for better analysis of risks to the global economy. The EWE is an important toolkit for providing an integrated perspective on global risks and vulnerabilities. The collaboration of the Fund and the Financial Stability Board in both operational and technical issues is commendable. The progress made so far with the EWE should now be accompanied by concrete steps to explore how best to communicate the results of the exercise to the membership and the public at large.

• It will be crucial that EWE results find their way into the Fund’s policy advice in both bilateral and multilateral surveillance. As is often pointed out, identifying vulnerabilities is relatively easy—what is harder is the policy action that is crucial to prevent a risk from becoming a reality. Each EWE round therefore needs to assess policy actions taken by authorities in response to previous warnings.

Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 09/133

December 11, 2009

On December 7, 2009, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the State of Eritrea.1

Background

Eritrea’s economic performance has weakened since the last consultation discussions held in January 2008. A series of exogenous shocks have taken a heavy toll on an already stretched economy. First, Eritrea experienced a severe drought in 2008, which resulted in a harvest that was one-fourth of that of the previous year, and necessitated emergency imports of food. Second, as a net importer of food and oil products, Eritrea was hard hit the same year by the international food and oil price crises. Finally, while the global financial crisis has so far bypassed Eritrea, the world-wide recession is likely to dampen the possible revival of remittances from the diaspora.

In spite of these adverse developments, the authorities have endeavored to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population and to implement their long-term development policies. They maintain an extensive social safety net, and are investing in three priority areas: (i) food security and agricultural production; (ii) infrastructure development; and (iii) human resources development.

As a result of the exogenous shocks, the economy sharply contracted in 2008, and inflation surged to double digits. To mitigate the impact of the shocks on the population, the authorities increased social subsidies and transfers. The ensuing fiscal deficit further burdened an already fragile domestic banking system. With the return of rains in 2009, agriculture is expected to rebound, and growth is projected to reach an estimated 3½ percent. Though the budget deficit is projected to improve in 2009, it will remain excessive, and inflation is forecast to hold in the double digits.

Monetary policy has continued to accommodate the budget deficit. The reliance on monetary financing of the budget deficit has resulted in a rapid expansion of broad money and has fueled inflation. Shortages of foreign exchange, falling remittances, and heavy government borrowing from the banking sector have hindered private sector activity. Negative real interest rates have stymied financial intermediation and weakened the stability of banks. IMF staff analysis suggests that the exchange rate is overvalued, indirectly confirmed by a growing parallel market exchange rate. Domestic and external debt levels are deemed unsustainable.

The medium-term outlook presents development challenges and may entail risks. In spite of progress toward certain Millennium Development Goals, poverty reduction has been thwarted by subdued growth and high inflation. Continued fiscal and domestic imbalances under current policies would impose an increased burden on the population. Conversely, the coming on stream of a major mine and of a cement factory in 2010 will have positive contributions to economic performance over the medium term.

Executive Board Assessment

Executive Directors noted that Eritrea’s economic performance weakened in 2008 in the wake of international food and oil price hikes, a severe drought, and the global economic crisis. They commended the authorities’ efforts to mitigate the impact on the most vulnerable segments of the population. Real growth is expected to rebound in 2009, but inflation is projected to remain high. Directors noted that low growth and high inflation have undermined poverty reduction in Eritrea—despite commendable progress toward the Millennium Development Goals in primary education and health, as well as in infrastructure development. They encouraged the authorities to take decisive and prompt actions to arrest the weak economic performance, to address large financial imbalances, and to place the economy on a path of sustained growth with poverty reduction.

Directors called on the authorities to reduce the large fiscal deficits that have been at the root of economic instability in Eritrea. They encouraged the authorities to implement comprehensive fiscal and structural reforms, and welcomed the authorities’ interest in requesting technical assistance from the IMF to improve public financial management and revenue administration, and adopt a medium-term expenditure framework. A few Directors recommended further reductions in defense spending to strengthen the fiscal position and release resources for development.

Directors expressed concern that the latest debt sustainability assessment shows Eritrea to be in external debt distress, accompanied by a very high level of domestic debt. They advised the authorities to reduce the need for further borrowing and to re-engage with the donor community, seeking grant or highly concessional external financing. Such renewed relationships will help provide the assistance—including debt relief under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative—necessary to help restore debt sustainability. A few Directors recommended using part of the revenue from the Bisha mine toward reducing domestic debt.

Directors regretted that the conduct of monetary policy continues to be dominated by the government’s large financing needs, fueling inflation, and curtailing credit to the private sector. Restoring the independence of monetary policy was viewed as critical, along with efforts to strengthen the banking sector and reduce distortions in financial intermediation. A few Directors encouraged the authorities to pass and implement Anti Money Laundering/Combating the Financing of Terrorism legislation.

Directors underscored the importance of liberalizing the exchange and trade systems to mitigate the foreign currency shortage, revive remittances, and reinvigorate private sector activity. They recommended reinstating the franco-valuta scheme. Directors noted the staff’s assessment that the real exchange rate is significantly overvalued, while also noting the deficiencies in data and assessment methodologies. They generally concurred that a gradual correction in the misalignment should be part of a comprehensive reform plan.

Directors encouraged the authorities to publish the budget and macroeconomic data to bolster transparency and economic accountability, utilizing technical assistance from the Fund, including from East African Regional Technical Assistance Center (AFRITAC). They also encouraged the authorities to address the serious data shortcomings that hamper Fund surveillance.

Eritrea: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2005–09

¹ Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here:http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

IMF

ASMARA, Eritrea September 29, 2009/African Press Organization (APO)/ — An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission visited Eritrea during September 14–29, 2009 to conduct the 2009 Article IV consultation discussions.

The last Article IV consultation was concluded in April 2008. The mission met with Mr. Ali, Minister of Energy and Mines, Mr. Woldemariam, Acting Governor of the Bank of Eritrea, Mrs. Woldeghiorghis, Director General of the Treasury and Mr. Tesfaldet, Director General of the Budget (both in the Ministry of Finance), other senior officials, and representatives of the international community and civil society.

The mission is grateful to the authorities for their very warm hospitality and fruitful discussions. Mr. Mario de Zamaróczy, mission chief for Eritrea, issued the following statement today in Asmara:

“The mission reviewed economic developments since the last consultation and discussed the authorities’ macroeconomic policies against the backdrop of a severe drought in 2008, the international food and oil price crises, and the global recession. In the wake of these exogenous shocks, Eritrea’s economic performance has weakened, with growth remaining elusive, while inflation has accelerated and progress in fiscal consolidation, stalled.

“The mission noted a number of areas where progress had been made. These included continued investment in agricultural and irrigation projects to wean the country’s farming industry progressively away from dependence on irregular rainfall; public investment program in targeted key sectors, such as education, health, mining, infrastructure, cement production, tourism, green energy, and fisheries. These investments are expected to contribute to a resumption of growth in the medium term. However, even with the positive impact of forthcoming mining and cement productions, Eritrea’s medium-term outlook could present downside risks. The mission expressed concerns with regard to the size of the fiscal and current account deficits, external and domestic debt levels, and high inflation. Growth, even with the maturation of earlier investments, may remain below the level necessary to achieve a significant reduction in poverty.

“The policy discussions centered on a number of possible policy measures to rekindle economic growth and private sector activities. In the short run, the focus should be on restoring macroeconomic and financial balances, through fiscal consolidation; reducing banking sector financing of the budget deficit; and relaxing import and exchange controls to re-launch imports of basic and intermediary goods. As global pressures recede, it would be important to bring inflation under control through restrained fiscal and monetary policies. The government’s expenditure prioritization efforts were identified as key to raising the effectiveness of public outlays in a resource-constrained environment. In the medium term, the focus should be on measures that promote external competitiveness; liberalization of the financial sector; removal of administrative bottlenecks; and promotion of private investment in the productive sectors. The mission believes that with the right set of reform policies and building on the country’s rich human and mineral resource potential, Eritrea could be well placed to rebound as the world recession wanes.

“The mission welcomed the authorities’ renewed interest in drawing on the IMF’s and other donors capacity-building assistance to develop institutional and human capacity in the civil service. The mission noted that the IMF’s East Africa Regional Technical Assistance Center (East AFRITAC) was well placed to provide technical assistance on a grant basis.

“It is expected that, subject to IMF management approval, the IMF’s Executive Board will consider the mission’s report in December 2009.” Source: (IMF)

Dar Es Salaam Port

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, that rich countries need to step up their support to poorer countries so they can quickly rebound from the crisis that came from the advanced economies, IMF In a September 17 speech at the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C., he observed that thus far, low-income countries have weathered the global financial crisis better than expected. “But low-income countries remain highly vulnerable”, he stressed, “so we cannot be complacent.”

Strauss-Kahn called on the international community to ensure that any global recovery also lifts the low-income countries. “These countries desperately need additional financing to tide them over, to give them adequate breathing space to cope with this crisis,” he said.

Strauss-Kahn emphasized that most low-income countries have responded well to the global financial crisis thanks to sound economic policies. “Since many of these countries ran good policies, they built foundations to ward off the storm. In the past, many low-income countries facing such a financial squeeze would have been forced to slash government spending, put administrative constraints on imports, or simply not pay their bills. But this time is different”, he said.

Improved policies

Because of improved policies, three quarters of low-income countries had been able to increase their budget deficits to help combat the crisis. Of 27 low-income countries with available data, 26 had managed to preserve or increase social spending—a significant achievement in the current environment.

There had also been an unprecedented scaling up of IMF financial support and policy advice to low-income countries, Strauss-Kahn noted. This had helped provide poorer countries with the necessary room to ease macroeconomic policies. The IMF had gone “above and beyond” what the G-20 London summit of advanced and emerging market countries had asked for in April.

The IMF has increased its concessional lending to $17 billion through 2014, and is front-loading this assistance so that $8 billion is available over the next two years. In addition, the IMF Executive Board approved zero interest payments up to the end of 2011 for all concessional loans and lower interest rates on a permanent basis thereafter.

Strauss-Kahn underscored that poor countries have longer-term needs for development financing that go well beyond the IMF’s mandate or capacity to provide. As the recent drought in East Africa suggested, there may be more challenges to come in the wake of the global crisis.

There was always a temptation for countries to retreat inwards, to look first at their own problems, and to respond primarily to domestic political needs and demands. ”But the world community cannot ignore the needs of the low-income countries, especially since the poorer countries are paying the price for rich country mistakes”, Strauss-Kahn stated. “Countries must resist the temptation to reduce aid, or to engage in trade or financial protectionism”. Source: (IMF)

The global economical crisis has hit the Middle East and North Africa negatively, with growth declining to 2.6% in 2009 compared to 5.7% in 2008. Nevertheless, according to the latest economical outlook of the IMF the region is doing much better than other parts of the world. The reasons given by the IMF are:

• Oil importing countries such as Djibouti and Egypt could benefit from lower oil prices.
• Oil importing countries escaped the crisis due to less linkage to global financial markets (capitaleritrea).
• Strict financial and economic management
• Oil exporting countries can rely on their large oil reserves
• Government spending to offset slowdown in domestic and international demand
• Stabilisation of the national banking system

The report states that the economical linkage between the  rich oil exporting countries and the poorer oil importing countries will help the region to cushion the global crisis better. Read more: IMF.